結論:高盛看到一些全球經濟已經見底的跡象


原文:

By Malcolm Scott

(Bloomberg) -- The global economy may have already bottomed out, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Economist Jan Hatzius.

While growth remains soft, Goldman’s current activity indicator in February is slightly above the downwardly-revised December and January numbers.

"Some green shoots are emerging that suggest that sequential growth will pick up from here," Hatzius and Sven Jari Stehn wrote in a note dated Feb. 26. Still, the risk to Goldman’s global GDP forecast of 3.5 percent for 2019 "is probably still on the downside."

On markets, Goldman: remains positive on risk assets, although upside is now probably lower as markets have become "more sanguine on recession"expects

高盛認為在市場對經濟衰退更為「樂觀」的情況下,應該對風險性資產抱持正向

此與我們在總體經濟面看2019年市場一文相同,我們認為當市場已經充分反映且應付過去年諸多利空之後,隨著今年利空因素縮減,應該對股票市場抱持更多期待。

bond yields to rise maintains a bearish dollar view, given a dovish Fed and expectation for a pickup in global growth is modestly bullish on oil over the next 2-3 months, but sees a more bearish outlook for the remainder of the year

The case for a pickup from the current pace is strongest in the U.S. as the drag from a tightening of financial conditions eases, according to Hatzius.

Goldman also sees tentative signs of a turnaround in Chinese growth. That’s in line with Bloomberg’s snapshot of early indicators of activity:

Some executives remain cautious. Jamie Dimon, Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., used the bank’s annual presentation to investors to acknowledge a growing number of potential obstacles to the economy that carried his firm to record profits last year.

“We are prepared for a recession,” Dimon said. “We’re not predicting a recession. We’re simply pointing out that we are very conscious about the risks we bear.”

這段顯示出華爾街與市場對於不知何時到來的經濟衰退已經保持一定預期,然而過多的預期也容易造成過多的反應,就像去年十月引發的大崩盤一樣。


As for the Fed, Goldman says the prospects for moves in the next 6 to 9 months have fallen and an increase toward the end of the year would require a rebound in both growth and core inflation. It expects an announcement at the March meeting that the Fed will end balance sheet runoff later this year, probably in September.

這段高盛經濟學家認為Fed在最近6-9個月的升息動作機率降低,如果要見到Fed重返鷹派可能要看到美國經濟有更好的成長以及更高的通膨水準。我們認為一切要看美國的勞動市場能否持續推動薪資成長,以及中國能否救起現在垂垂可危的經濟。



心得以及評論

我最近閱讀了很多新聞都提到上述相關觀點,雖然我也是同樣認為今年應該是相對好做,應該持有更多股票,但還是有許多經濟學家認為今年景氣會持續走下坡。

不過我要跟大家釐清一個觀念,景氣跟股票不見得是亦步亦趨,相信大家在很多討論區都看到有人貼某法人對景氣看空的訊息就狂嗆「吃貨啦!」我覺得這是完全不同的兩件事情。

股市完全可以在景氣走下坡的時候繼續漲,要知道要讓股票漲的原理不是基本面變好,而是基本面變得比「預期」要好。因此只要景氣走下坡的速度比預期低,甚至有個中期小反彈(比如現在),股市很有可能繼續往上走的。

如果你要問我說什麼時候景氣會衰退,我認為絕對不是今年,而股票領先景氣,那麼更不可能是今年反映衰退了。


題外話

今天一個先輩跟我說,我們做分析這行的,要培養客戶對自己的信任感,看得準不準沒關係,重點是培養信任感。我想想,只好多發文爭取信任感了。

當然準不準也很重要。





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Sakura0707
02/28
很棒的分享,謝謝!
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