中美接近達成貿易協議,過去的關稅可能一併取消

照慣例先引用一段原文新聞(比較精準) 

From The Wall Street Journal

U.S. and China Near Deal That Could End Most U.S. Tariffs

By Jenny Leonard

The U.S. and China are close to a trade deal that could lift most or all U.S. tariffs as long as Beijing follows through on pledges ranging from better protecting intellectual-property rights to buying a significant amount of American products, two people familiar with the discussions said.

兩位消息人士指出只要中國願意「保護更多智慧財產權」以及「進口更多中國產品」,那麼美國願意和談,甚至取消過去的加徵關稅

Chinese officials made clear in a series of negotiations with the U.S. in recent weeks that removing levies on $200 billion of Chinese goods quickly was necessary to finalize any deal, said the people, who weren’t authorized to talk publicly about the deliberations. That’s the amount the Trump administration imposed after China retaliated against the U.S.’s first salvo of $50 billion in tariffs that kicked off the eight-month trade war.

中方指出取消先前加徵的2000億中國貨(10%關稅那部分)是談和的必要條件,可以看出中國真的被這2000億元10%打中要害了

我們認為如果取消這部分關稅的話,對於新興市場等原物料出口國尤其大(像是巴西)、對於工業類股幫助也由其大(最近台股的工具機族群也反映一段了)

One of the remaining sticking points is whether the tariffs would be lifted immediately or over a period of time to allow the U.S. to monitor whether China is meeting its obligations, the people said. The U.S. wants to continue to wield the threat of tariffs as leverage to ensure China won’t renege on the deal, and only lift the duties fully when Beijing implemented all parts of the agreement.

不過就算取消也有可能不是立即取消,可能是漸進式的(看中方改進的進度)

As part of the ongoing talks, the U.S. asked the Chinese not to retaliate or bring World Trade Organization cases in response to U.S. tariffs that could be imposed to enforce the deal, according to a person familiar with the negotiations.

Stocks in Europe and Asia advanced on optimism about a deal, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rising 0.4 percent. The offshore yuan gained 0.2 percent.

Dates for a summit between President Donald Trump and counterpart Xi Jinping have yet to be agreed, according to officials from both countries who declined to be named. The Wall Street Journal, which reported earlier that the U.S. and China were close to finalizing a trade pact, reported the summit could happen around March 27.

彭博社引用WSJ的報導,認為川習會雖然還沒敲定,但有可能在3/27左右舉行。我認為基本上兩邊還在跳探戈式的試探彼此,可能不會這麼快塵埃落定。

Plans for a signing ceremony have been complicated by Xi’s need to lead China’s annual National People’s Congress and to make other foreign trips.


U.S. and Chinese officials “have conducted fruitful and intensive consultations and made important progress on many issues of common concern,” Zhang Yesui, a spokesman for the National People’s Congress, the annual session of China’s legislature, told reporters in Beijing on Monday. “We hope that the two sides will continue to hold consultations and reach a mutually beneficial and win-win agreement,” he added.

心得以及評論

上篇貿易戰的分析

這篇文比起上篇貿易戰的新聞,又更樂觀了,從市場也看得出來,中國上證指數雖然今天收了一根天線,但基本上是延續漲勢

充滿投機性的富邦上証正二00633L最近的成交量一併放大,看得出市場等這波等很久了,中國又要起飛了!?

你應該繼續加碼/進場陸股嗎?

我覺得現在應該小心為上,在寫總體經濟看2019年的時候,雖然認為今年股市會是上漲的一年

但這波全球反彈實在來的很快,又快又猛烈,實際上是在反映中美貿易戰的快速好轉

如果我們把中國股市應有的漲幅拆成兩個部分(全球股市亦然),一個是中國股市的基本面,另一是被美國貿易戰打壓的外在面

現在反彈的這波,很有可能是在反映外在面回復,那如果市場已經反映這個利多,後續能漲的空間恐怕不大

加上法人預估中國股市的整年獲利數字仍然還沒脫離下修趨勢,短期間的壓力應該會展現了

不過如果願意中長期(3-6個月)做多中國股市的朋友,如果願意多放長或是等修正加碼,我們還是整體保持樂觀,係因於中國開始救市之後,整體社會融資回溫下,整個經濟氛圍會比去年還要好上很多。


by

Arthur

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