結論:與我們上一篇總經看2019相呼應:新的多頭正要開始,但隨時注意拉回

先引用一段彭博的新聞稿:

股市因為貿易戰出現轉機而上漲

Stocks Climb as China Soars on Optimism Over Trade


By Eddie van der Walt

     (Bloomberg) -- Stocks in Europe and Asia advanced alongside futures on U.S. equities after U.S. President Donald Trump postponed the date for boosting tariffs on Chinese imports 川普延後加關稅, in the latest sign of progress in the trade talks. Bonds fell and the dollar retreated.

     The headlines boosted carmakers and miners, fueling an advance in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, with contracts on the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P all climbing. And in Asia, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index rallied the most since 2015 and the yuan strengthened after Trump said he will delay the March 1 trade deadline, and as comments from China President Xi Jinping suggested top officials will focus on growth rather than cracking down on leverage

我覺得重點在這句,習近平請官員們專心拚經濟而不是打消槓桿,代表中國經濟要走一波短多長空(債務失衡擱置)

Emerging market currencies and shares advanced despite China’s state-run Xinhua news agency later publishing a commentary saying talks will be harder at the final stage. Treasuries and core European bonds slipped.

     “This is a sigh of relief,” Ben Emons, managing director for global macro strategy at Medley Global Advisors, told Bloomberg TV. “Markets will still keep a level of caution, but this news is encouraging.”

     The official delay from the U.S. may give fresh impetus to extend a global rally in equities that was being tested amid an uncertain future on global trade and forecasts for global economic growth to ebb. Also in focus this week will be a hearing from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, where investors will get the latest read on monetary policy.

     Trump said the trade talks were productive. “The U.S. has made substantial progress in our trade talks with China on important structural issues including intellectual property protection, technology transfer, agriculture, services, currency, and many other issues,” he said in a Twitter posting on Sunday evening.

     Read how emerging markets are beholden to the yuan’s fate as trade deadline looms

     Elsewhere, Brent held above $67 a barrel and gold was steady, while copper extended gains. The pound was little changed against the euro as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May pushed back the deadline for Parliament to vote on her Brexit deal.

結論

中國放棄打消高槓桿回頭防守經濟在我們的預料之中,請參閱上一篇總體經濟面看2019

股市應該會受激勵(今天陸股已經漲了5.6%) 三年內最高,雖然很嚇人但我們認為今年的長多趨勢不變

但仍然注意即將邁入第二季是傳統淡季(電子業),需要注意各種程度的拉回,我認為較大程度的拉回都是好的加碼/上車點

不可否認的是最近已經漲了很久,各種技術指標都有點過熱,還需要審慎進場!

若是在車上的可以考慮放一陣子

當然,中美貿易戰難捉摸,有可能急轉直下,但我覺得現在中美經濟都下行的情況下沒人願意擴大戰場


有興趣看更多這種文章的話,歡迎追蹤! 免費的文章很多。

有興趣看我們團隊篩出的強勢股的話,歡迎訂閱,知識的價值一下就回本了。

更歡迎在下面留言討論,謝謝


by

Arthur

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