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川習會延期至四月份

今天彭博的頭條,於是拿來跟大家分享,照慣例先引用一段原文新聞(比較精準) 

China and U.S. to Push Back Trump-Xi Meeting to at Least April

From Bloomberg News

A meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to sign an agreement to end their trade war won’t occur this month and is more likely to happen in April at the earliest, three people familiar with the matter said.

今天突然跑出三個知情人士說,美國總統川普與中國國家主席習近平為化解貿易戰而舉行的高峰會談,時間不會訂在本月,最快比較可能是在4月份。

如同我們之前在月底「川習會」的風險與機會提到的,這是其中延期的一種,只是連會都沒開,不過美股開盤也沒啥反映,看來大家都已經有點預料到了,真正會影響市場還是開完會的結果/或是下次又延期,

Despite claims of progress in talks by both sides, a hoped-for summit at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort will now take place at the end of April if it happens at all, according to one of the people. China is pressing for a formal state visit, which traditionally takes place in Washington, rather than a lower-key appearance just to sign a trade deal, the person said.

Xi’s staff have scrapped planning for a potential flight to the U.S. following a trip to Europe later this month, a separate person said. The people asked not to be named as the details are private.

Fear of Trump Walking Out on Xi Haunts China as Talks Near End

上面連結是另一則新聞,寫的是中國官方很怕川普放習近平鴿子,因為川普才剛在越南放了金正恩鴿子,直接閃人,只因為他沒得到他想要的結果。試想如果今天是習近平被放鴿子,場面一定超級難看阿。因此中國可能要有協議的準備才敢讓習近平出去跟川普簽約。

Stocks edged lower and the dollar gained as investors weighed fresh developments in trade talks between the world’s two largest economies.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer this week pointed to “major issues” still unresolved in the talks, with few signs of a breakthrough on the most difficult subjects. Chinese officials have also bristled at the appearance of the deal being one-sided, and are wary of the risk of Trump walking away even if Xi were to travel to the U.S.

萊特希澤(美國貿易代表)這周依然重述中美之間仍有重大問題未解決,想當然就是指竊取技術跟智財權的部分,這因為常常在講了市場基本也是沒啥反映。

White House communications staff didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The State Council in Beijing also didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Trump himself has dialed down the urgency of getting a deal signed as early as this month. He acknowledged concerns in Beijing about the possibility of him walking away from a trade deal, offering to push back a summit with Xi until a final deal is reached.

“We could do it either way,” Trump told reporters Wednesday at the White House. “We can have the deal completed and come and sign or we can get the deal almost completed and negotiate some of the final points. I would prefer that. But it doesn’t matter that much.”

川普這段真的很幽默欸,他自己主動放話說不管談好了再過來見面簽,或是談剩下幾點見面討論簽都可以。基本上川普就是老神在在的樣子。畢竟只要還沒和議,加徵關稅在的每一天,中國的經濟好比在扣血一樣;但其實川普本人民調也是在扣血,所以誰能贏呢?我們繼續看下去。


想知道更多的話..

最近發了很多中國經濟的評論,有興趣可以閱讀以下

一個分析師如何引起了陸股周五的大跌! 

上篇貿易戰的分析   

現在還能追陸股嗎? 先看看這篇再決定!


心得以及評論

川習會延期你不該感到意外,除了這世間充滿意外之外,必須了解貿易磋商本身就是這種若即若離的感覺。

上證指數昨天下跌1.2%有點利多出盡中美貿易戰快和談這件事情,未來如果如月底「川習會」的風險與機會這篇我們預測的情境之一走兩邊破局(可能是繼續推延談判 不見得要升溫) 的話,我認為上證指數還有可能修正。但是中長線來看我對上證指數中長線來看還是有信心的,兩會結束之後決定要穩增長的中國人是不可小看的。雖然說最近的信貸數據還是疲弱,我看到有其他站上的人在寫,寫得好像中國快沒救一樣。

但是我必須說現在投資上證要看的是下半年不是上半年,上半年的經濟差之前已經反映過了,現在上證的指數隱含著對下半年的預期。那怎樣上證會跌?就是下半年預期變差,目前我看不到任何變差的可能,現在的數據差是現在的數據,未來數據還沒出來,但是憑藉著中國瘋狂放水跟努力刺激,我實在沒理由說中國未來數據會差。

那麼根本就不該跌了吧?!

我覺得還是會阿,只是可能是短期跌,下一個月跌之類的,但我覺得不太可能跌到哪,是正常修正、利多出盡罷了。

要大跌只有兩可能

  1. 川習會瘋狂爆炸,兩邊繼續報復
  2. 中國放棄刺激經濟

我覺得第一點比較有可能,第二點太難了,中國人很會放錢的。



有機會再跟各位分享其他看法


by

Arthur


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