陸股周五大跌顯示出北京當局正在抑制股票成為另一個泡沫

今天彭博的頭條之一,這篇很有趣,於是拿來跟大家分享,照慣例先引用一段原文新聞(比較精準) 

From Bloomberg News

China’s $345 Billion Stock Rout Shows Beijing’s Fear of Bubbles

(Bloomberg) -- It started with a single sell rating on one stock. By the time China’s exchanges shut on Friday, equity investors were sitting on $345 billion of losses and the realization that Beijing is in no mood for another bubble.

今日陸股大跌全體投資人約損失了3,450億美元,一切起於一個分析師對於一支股票看空,顯示出北京當局害怕股市成為另一個泡沫

     The bearish call on shares of a state-owned insurer, delivered by analysts at China’s biggest state-owned brokerage, was widely interpreted as a sign that the government wants this year’s world-beating surge in Chinese stocks to slow down. The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 4.4 percent, snapping an eight-week winning streak and closing at its low for the day after disappointing export figures gave investors another reason to sell.

由於是來自於最大國營券商的分析師在市場一片看好的情況下搶先看空,市場解讀成北京當局暗示陸股的暴漲可以緩緩,結果卻引變成一場暴賣,上證今天下跌了4.4%

     Though indirect, it was the first time this year that China appeared to take steps to cool a buying frenzy that added almost $2 trillion to equity values and lifted market turnover to a more than three-year high. The government has until now been a big supporter of the rally, seeing it as a potential salve for overstretched corporate balance sheets and shaky consumer sentiment. But memories of the country’s disastrous 2015 boom and bust are still fresh.

這是北京當局今年第一次採取這種非直接的手段來冷卻股市,原本股市反彈固然很好,拯救了中國疲弱的消費者信心,但現在漲多了,政府卻反希望大家不要繼續買股了

     “It’s about time that stocks took a pause, as regulators are increasingly concerned by a market that’s growing fanatic,” said Zhu Junchun, a Shanghai-based analyst at Lianxun Securities Co. “While authorities want an active market, they don’t want one that’s overactive.”

這段其他券商的分析師評論了北京當局的想法,希望股票漲,但是又不希望漲太多以免過熱,形成另一個泡沫


想知道更多的話..

最近發了很多中國經濟的評論,有興趣可以閱讀以下

上篇貿易戰的分析   

現在還能追陸股嗎? 先看看這篇再決定!


心得以及評論

今天A股果然如我們過去所預期的短期修正,儘管程度很大。當然我不認為今天大跌的原因都是新聞說的這件事情,主要是這幾天漲多了,技術面本身過熱,回檔是健康的。市場這段時間過度反映中美貿易戰利多、中國撒錢救經濟的利多,現在比較像是現出原形,回歸基本面,加上不少投資人人踩人實現獲利賣出了。

想投資中國股市,或是已經有中國股市部位的朋友,未來仍需要持續關注中國經濟動向再決定。短期持續修正風險仍高。

值得一提的是,國際投資人對中國股市最感冒的就是政策性的風險,從這件事情就可略知一二。一個封閉或是受到政治波動影響的市場並不受國外法人青睞。這也是為什麼中國自從去年中A股入MSCI第一步只先開始納入其中2.5%(只先買2.5%的應買部位意思啦)再慢慢上調。當初台灣1996年入摩一口氣就先納入50%的應買部位,顯示出MSCI對納入A股這事情是十分小心的。



有機會再跟各位分享其他看法


by

Arthur


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